Do-it-yourself game plans
Build an evidence-led decision process, one practical stage at a time.
A plan with decision gates.
0 / 9 completeA proposed planning schedule, not an observed market average. Later stages are conditional; the final review has no fixed duration.
Inside this section
Download the research ↓Objective and working assumptions
Use this programme when a founder must choose whether to pivot, accept a financing offer, hire a senior leader, enter a market, or reduce spend.
Stage 0 — Safety and authority gate (day 0)
Write: what decision is needed, by what date, whose legal authority is required, and what cannot be shared.
Stage 1 — Frame the choice (day 1)
Write a five-sentence brief: We need to decide [verb]; by [date]; because [event]; under [cash/legal/team constraints]; to preserve [objective].
Stage 2 — Reconcile the baseline evidence (days 1–3)
Pull last three to six months of board materials, revenue and churn by cohort, customer interviews, hiring plans, payroll, cash movements, commitments, cap table, contracts and decision records.
Stage 3 — Run buyer-side evidence tests (days 3–10, as feasible)
Create five hypotheses and five ways each could be wrong; conduct suggested 5–10 focused interviews or product observations, with the size adapted to the decision rather than sold as statistical proof.
Stage 4 — Pre-mortem and dissent session (day 5–12)
Ask every decision participant to write down a private failure scenario before group discussion.
Stage 5 — Decision math and reversibility (day 7–14)
For each option show: cash spent before first evidence; time to first evidence; cash remaining if wrong; reversibility; people impact; legal dependency; and what would make this option clearly inferior .
Stage 6 — Decide, record dissent and communicate (day 10–15)
The CEO or designated authorised body makes the decision.
Stage 7 — Execute a bounded test (subsequent 2–6 weeks; example)
Move the first reversible commitment, not the full budget.
Stage 8 — Reopen or close the decision
Compare the observed evidence with the test specification, not merely with the team's mood.
Ready-to-use one-page decision memo
Compare field and entry.
When this becomes too much for DIY
Buy bounded expertise when there is no independent challenge inside the company, the deadline is too near to gather contradictory evidence, you have unresolved legal/security obligations, or cash models are not reconciled.
Editorial self-assessment
Not independently validated